Rare event rule

Rare event rule

Lessons

Rare Event Rule:
With a certain claim, if the probability of the claim coming true is extremely unlikely we can conclude with a reasonable amount of certainty that the claim is false.
  • 1.
    Applying the Rare Event Rule

  • 2.
    The Rare Event Rule for the Central Limit Theorem
    The ski resort Whistler/Blackcomb gets an average of 120 inches of snow in January with a standard deviation of 10 inches. If someone makes the claim that “every year for next twenty years it will snow less than 110 inches of snow in January”, then can we say whether this claim is plausibly true or most likely false?

  • 3.
    In Pacific Spirit Park there are an average of 175 cedars per acre, and a standard deviation of 20 cedars per acre. A plot of land of size 30 acres is marked out and it is assumed that there will be more than 5,400 cedars in this plot. Is this claim plausibly true or most likely false?